Yesterday we highlighted consensus analyst estimates for the price of crude oil. Below we provide the consensus price target for gold through 2012. These target prices are based on the median of 21 gold analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. As shown, analysts currently aren’t expecting a big rally or a big decline in gold over the next few years. By mid-year 2009, analysts are expecting gold to be at $825/ounce, which is less than $10 from its current price of $816. At the end of 2011, analysts expect gold to be down to $790, and then down to $762 by the end of 2012.
As crazy as the stock market has been this year, trading in oil has been even whackier. Oil started the year around $95, rallied all the way up to $148, and has now collapsed down to the mid-$40s. So where do analysts think the commodity is going from here? Below we highlight consensus median price targets for oil based on estimates from 31 commodity analysts collected by Bloomberg.
As shown, the median estimate for the end of this quarter remains at $66, which is more than $20 above the current price of oil. Good luck with that one! For the end of the first quarter, analysts are collectively looking for a price of $64. By the end of Q3 ‘09, analysts expect oil to be at $71.5. Expectations are for $83 by the end of 2010, $100 by the end of 2011, and $95 by the end of 2012. Based on these estimates, analysts aren’t expecting the speculative high of $145 to be reached at any time over the next four years, but they are expecting a considerable rebound.